Pith of the pith:
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) of most of the countries, ahead of Paris conference in November, have been ambitious. However, they yet fail to cap the global carbon emissions to levels which will prevent the rise of world temperature by 2° C.
The pith:
The INDC announcement, context, ability to deliver of major countries is explained below.
China:
INDC: Ambitious target of reducing carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 60-65% by 2030 as compared to levels of 2005. Hopes to peak emissions by 2030
Context: China is the largest carbon emitter in the world. After the breakdown of Copenhagen discussion of 2009 due to inflexibility of China, the approach of China has changed.
Ability to deliver: With the rising problem of air pollution and slowing economy, China is expected to peak before 2030.
USA:
INDC: cutting back of carbon emissions by 26-28% of 2005 levels by 2025
Context: US is the 2nd biggest emitter on the planet. Largest emissions come from power plants. Obama administration has been quite firm on climate change policies despite Congressional opposition which is controlled by Republicans.
Ability to deliver: Uncertain. Congressional opposition might lead to roll back on some climate change legislations. 2016 elections will decide.
European Union:
INDC: 30% reduction on 2005 levels by 2030
Context: 3rd largest emitter as a group. The European Parliament has been quite vocal on climate change policies and the INDC is one of the most ambitious among industrialised countries.
Ability to deliver: The biggest certainty comes from public support to restrict climate change and renewable power. However, concerns are based nationally coordinated actions which seem to be in contrast. For instance, Poland's energy is based on coal and views decarbonization as a threat to its economy, while Germany aims to decarbonize its economy along with scrapping nuclear power by mid century (called "energiewende"). Also, automakers and energy companies have put pressure to moderate emission cuts.
India:
INDC: pledge to achieve 40% of electricity capacity through renewable and low carbon energy sources; reduce emission intensity (emission per unit of GDP) by 35% by 2030
Context: India is the 4th largest polluter. However, India of 2030 is yet to be built. 300 million people do not have access to electricity. Infrastructure for 1.5 billion people of 2030 is yet to be built.
Ability to deliver: The requirement of development and poverty alleviation will increase India's carbon consumption. However, the emission per capita is yet very low as compared to West and will stay so till 2030 even after an increase in emissions. However, India has started feeling the heat of climate pollution as its many cities are world topmost air polluted cities. Despite that, India has increased targets for solar and wind power plants, nuclear and thermal power plants. And yet, the ambitious INDC targets indicate that India is going to be an enthusiastic contributor to climate change negotiations.
Japan:
INDC: pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 26% of 2013 levels by 2030
Context: Fukushima nuclear disaster after the tsunami of 2011 has led to recasting of Japan's energy policy. The target has been described as weak by environmentalists.
Ability to deliver: After Fukushima disaster, Japan has closed most of its nuclear reactors and has been forced to import more coal, gas and oil for its energy needs. More coal based power plants are planned. Seems unable to achieve.
Brazil:
INDC: cut back emissions by 37% of 2005 levels by 2025; restriction on deforestation in Amazon rainforests
Context: Brazil has been noted as the most ambitious pledger as it has targeted absolute reductions (not as per unit GDP reductions) in contrast to other developing countries.
Ability to deliver: Brazil's growing economy requirement will place constraints on its ability to achieve. However, Dilma Rousseff has been criticised for keeping deforestation targets only Amazon forests and not nationwide (such as Cerrado forests which are being illegally cleared for soya plantations and ranches). However, the highly ambitious targets has made it the front leader in negotiations.
Russia:
INDC: cut back 25-30% of GHG emissions of 1990 levels by 2030
Context: Russia public sentiment is indifferent on the issue of climate change. The vast areas of icy forests are supposed to serve as carbon soakers and the public and political class sometimes dismisses global warming as helpful.
Ability to deliver: Russia's current energy policy has been impacted by slowing economy, sanctions due to Ukraine, falling oil prices. Actually it's emissions decreased in 2014. And it views the problem not as a medium term problem but a long term issue. However, Putin led to passage of a bill which mandates carbon emission reports by corporates despite massive resistance by industries. Anyways, the targets are modest.
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